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Meux vs Standard Liège II — League #487 2026

Meux
Meux
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Standard Liège II
Standard Liège II
G. Smal 47'
L. Gauchet 33' (pen)
C. Marion 30'
L. Vander Cammen 3'
1/24/2026League #487League #487 · ACFF - 20Stade des Vert et Blanc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Meux73%
×Draw17%
Standard Liège II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meux
2.27
Standard Liège II
0.70

Meux creates 224% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Meux
2.33
Standard Liège II
0.40

allows per match

Meux
1.00
Standard Liège II
2.20

finishing

Meux+0.00on par
Standard Liège II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meux ↓

Standard Liège II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Meux or draw
90%
Meux or Standard Liège II
83%
Draw or Standard Liège II
27%

Winning margin

Meux wins by 2+
49%
Standard Liège II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Meux 1+ goals
90%
Meux 2+ goals
66%
Meux 3+ goals
39%
Standard Liège II 1+ goals
50%
Standard Liège II 2+ goals
16%
Standard Liège II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Meux (draw refunded)
88%
Standard Liège II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meux at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Standard Liège II away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meux attack 2.33 + Standard Liège II defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.27

Standard Liège II attack 0.40 + Meux defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Meux scores more
73%
level
17%
Standard Liège II scores more
10%

Meux at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Meux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Vander Cammen
30'
C. Marion
33'
L. GauchetPenalty
47'
G. Smal
Meux
Standard
L. Gomez
Manager: L. Gomez
S. Grandjean
Manager: S. Grandjean

Meux 4 – 0 Standard Liège II

Meux beat Standard Liège II 4-0 in League #487 on January 24, 2026.

Goals: L. Vander Cammen (3'), C. Marion (30'), L. Gauchet (33' pen), G. Smal (47').

The match was played at Stade des Vert et Blanc.