Metz W 0–1 Paris FC W: Result & Stats

Metz W

FT

0 – 1

Paris FC W

4/13/2019

Feminine Division 1 · Round 20Stade Dezavelle (Longeville-lès-Metz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metz W14%

×Draw19%

Paris FC W66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metz WExpected goals in this matchParis FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.16

Metz W

0.88

Paris FC W

2.16

Paris FC W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 87 away

0.63

creates per match

1.94

2.37

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Metz W

0.63

Paris FC W

1.94

allows per match

Metz W

2.37

Paris FC W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metz W+0.00on par

Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz W ↓

Paris FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Metz W or draw

34%

Metz W or Paris FC W

81%

Draw or Paris FC W

86%

Winning margin

Metz W wins by 2+

4%

Paris FC W wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Metz W 1+ goals

59%

Metz W 2+ goals

22%

Metz W 3+ goals

6%

Paris FC W 1+ goals

88%

Paris FC W 2+ goals

63%

Paris FC W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Metz W (draw refunded)

18%

Paris FC W (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz W at home — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz W attack 0.63 + Paris FC W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

Paris FC W attack 1.94 + Metz W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Metz W scores more

14%

level

19%

Paris FC W scores more

66%

Paris FC W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff