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Metz W vs Marseille W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Metz W
Metz W
CANC
14:00
Marseille W
Marseille W
5/30/2020Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 22Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metz W40%
×Draw22%
Marseille W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz W
1.81
Marseille W
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Metz W
0.63
Marseille W
1.15

allows per match

Metz W
2.37
Marseille W
3.00

finishing

Metz W+0.00on par
Marseille W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz W ↓

Marseille W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Metz W or draw
62%
Metz W or Marseille W
78%
Draw or Marseille W
60%

Winning margin

Metz W wins by 2+
21%
Marseille W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Metz W 1+ goals
84%
Metz W 2+ goals
54%
Metz W 3+ goals
27%
Marseille W 1+ goals
83%
Marseille W 2+ goals
52%
Marseille W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Metz W (draw refunded)
51%
Marseille W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz W at home — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

Marseille W away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz W attack 0.63 + Marseille W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Marseille W attack 1.15 + Metz W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metz W scores more
40%
level
22%
Marseille W scores more
38%

Metz W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Metz W vs Marseille W — Match Preview

Metz W face Marseille W on May 30, 2020 in this Feminine Division 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Metz W host Marseille W at Stade Saint-Symphorien.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.