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Metz W vs FC Fleury 91 W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Metz W
Metz W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Fleury 91 W
FC Fleury 91 W
9/8/2018Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 2Stade Saint-Symphorien (Longeville-lès-Metz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metz W22%
×Draw23%
FC Fleury 91 W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz W
1.10
FC Fleury 91 W
1.85

FC Fleury 91 W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 84 away

creates per match

Metz W
0.63
FC Fleury 91 W
1.33

allows per match

Metz W
2.37
FC Fleury 91 W
1.57

finishing

Metz W+0.00on par
FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz W ↓

FC Fleury 91 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Metz W or draw
45%
Metz W or FC Fleury 91 W
77%
Draw or FC Fleury 91 W
78%

Winning margin

Metz W wins by 2+
8%
FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Metz W 1+ goals
67%
Metz W 2+ goals
30%
Metz W 3+ goals
10%
FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals
84%
FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals
55%
FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Metz W (draw refunded)
29%
FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz W at home — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

FC Fleury 91 W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz W attack 0.63 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.10

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.33 + Metz W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Metz W scores more
22%
level
23%
FC Fleury 91 W scores more
55%

FC Fleury 91 W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metz W vs FC Fleury 91 W

FC Fleury 91 W beat Metz W 2-0 in Feminine Division 1 on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien (Longeville-lès-Metz).