Metz 0–2 Strasbourg: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Metz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Strasbourg

J. Aholou 90+1'

L. Ajorque 50'

1/9/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Metz36%

×Draw26%

Strasbourg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetzExpected goals in this matchStrasbourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Metz

1.33

Strasbourg

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

1.07

creates per match

1.37

1.42

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Metz

1.07

Strasbourg

1.37

allows per match

Metz

1.42

Strasbourg

1.59

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metz-0.21scores less

Strasbourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Strasbourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Metz or draw

61%

Metz or Strasbourg

74%

Draw or Strasbourg

64%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+

16%

Strasbourg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals

74%

Metz 2+ goals

38%

Metz 3+ goals

15%

Strasbourg 1+ goals

75%

Strasbourg 2+ goals

41%

Strasbourg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)

48%

Strasbourg (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.42 · 22 matches

Strasbourg away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.07 + Strasbourg defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Strasbourg attack 1.37 + Metz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Metz scores more

36%

level

26%

Strasbourg scores more

39%

Strasbourg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Strasbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

L. Ajorque

Strasbourg · F

8.3

Match Events

41'

S. Niakaté← Jemerson

50'

L. Ajorque↳ J. Bellegarde

61'

O. Nguette← I. Niane

61'

P. Yade← W. Mikelbrencis

68'

M. Gueye← N. de Préville

68'

A. Bassi← W. Tchimbembé

75'

J. Aholou← J. Bellegarde

77'

80'

90'

90+2'

90+1'

J. Aholou↳ L. Ajorque

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetzStrasbourg

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots19

4Corners3

11Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots19

1On Target7

5Off Target10

2Blocked2

2Inside Box12

6Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

382Total Passes564

305Accurate Passes473

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1