Metz 0–1 Stade Brestois 29: Result & Stats

Metz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Brestois 29

12/10/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Metz42%

×Draw26%

Stade Brestois 2932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetzExpected goals in this matchStade Brestois 29

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.22

Metz

1.42

Stade Brestois 29

1.22

Metz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.13

creates per match

1.04

1.40

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Metz

1.13

Stade Brestois 29

1.04

allows per match

Metz

1.40

Stade Brestois 29

1.70

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Metz-0.28scores less

Stade Brestois 29+0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Metz or draw

68%

Metz or Stade Brestois 29

74%

Draw or Stade Brestois 29

58%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+

20%

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals

76%

Metz 2+ goals

41%

Metz 3+ goals

17%

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals

70%

Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals

34%

Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)

56%

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.13 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.04 + Metz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Metz scores more

42%

level

26%

Stade Brestois 29 scores more

32%

Metz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff