Metz 6–0 Seraing United: Result & Stats

Metz

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Seraing United

I. Sane 87', 65'

E. Soumah-Abbad 75'

G. Abuashvili 62', 29'

G. Hein 6'

7/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Metz71%

×Draw18%

Seraing United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetzExpected goals in this matchSeraing United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.79

Metz

2.30

Seraing United

0.79

Metz creates 191% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

2.33

creates per match

0.87

0.71

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Metz

2.33

Seraing United

0.87

allows per match

Metz

0.71

Seraing United

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metz+0.00on par

Seraing United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Seraing United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Metz or draw

89%

Metz or Seraing United

82%

Draw or Seraing United

29%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+

48%

Seraing United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals

90%

Metz 2+ goals

67%

Metz 3+ goals

40%

Seraing United 1+ goals

55%

Seraing United 2+ goals

19%

Seraing United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)

86%

Seraing United (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Seraing United away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 2.33 + Seraing United defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.30

Seraing United attack 0.87 + Metz defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Metz scores more

71%

level

18%

Seraing United scores more

11%

Metz at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

29'

62'

65'

75'

87'

Metz

Seraing

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Luc Holtz

Metz substitutes

Soumah-AbbadSaneBaDiopSantosMarchalMelieresToureBaMputuKadamani

Manager: Kevin Caprasse

Seraing United substitutes

NgouaVanhoveGregoireBisevacCrescenzoLockmanBisarreOndo-EyiTrialistADBGregoire