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Metz vs Martigues — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Martigues
Martigues
9/24/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Metz59%
×Draw23%
Martigues18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.75
Martigues
0.83

Metz creates 111% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 17 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Martigues
0.94

allows per match

Metz
0.72
Martigues
1.71

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Martigues+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Martigues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metz or draw
82%
Metz or Martigues
77%
Draw or Martigues
41%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
34%
Martigues wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
83%
Metz 2+ goals
52%
Metz 3+ goals
25%
Martigues 1+ goals
56%
Martigues 2+ goals
20%
Martigues 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
77%
Martigues (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.72 · 57 matches

Martigues away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Martigues defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Martigues attack 0.94 + Metz defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Metz scores more
59%
level
23%
Martigues scores more
18%

Metz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Metz 6–0 Martigues

Metz beat Martigues 6-0 in Ligue 2 on September 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.