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Metz vs Laval — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Laval
Laval
I. Traoré 90+4'
T. Thomas 5'
8/31/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Metz53%
×Draw26%
Laval22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.54
Laval
0.88

Metz creates 75% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 97 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Laval
0.94

allows per match

Metz
0.82
Laval
1.30

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Metz or draw
78%
Metz or Laval
74%
Draw or Laval
47%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
27%
Laval wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
79%
Metz 2+ goals
45%
Metz 3+ goals
20%
Laval 1+ goals
59%
Laval 2+ goals
22%
Laval 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
71%
Laval (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 62 matches

Laval away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Laval defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Laval attack 0.94 + Metz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Metz scores more
53%
level
26%
Laval scores more
22%

Metz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
G. HeinMetzMetz · M
8.5

Match Events

5'
T. Thomas↳ T. Vargas
46'
P. Diallo← Fali Candé
61'
J. Tell← S. Doucouré
61'
M. Adiléhou← P. Ouaneh
72'
J. Asoro← I. Sané
73'
Owen Kouassi
79'
Loïs Martins← K. Zohi
81'
J. Nduquidi← J. Deminguet
85'
J. Roye← M. Sellouki
85'
W. Kokolo← A. Cherni
90+1'
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly
90+4'
I. Traoré

Possession

69%Metz

Shots

18Metz

Pass accuracy

58%Metz

Statistics

MetzLaval
Overview
69%Possession31%
18Total Shots7
4Corners3
9Fouls17
Shots
18Total Shots7
3On Target4
13Off Target0
2Blocked3
11Inside Box4
7Outside Box3
Passing
69%Possession31%
564Total Passes263
505Accurate Passes173
90%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Ligue 2: Metz 1–1 Laval

Metz and Laval drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on August 31, 2024.

Goals: T. Thomas (5'), I. Traoré (90+4').

Metz controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.