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Metz vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 1 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
4/17/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 32Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Metz36%
×Draw27%
Clermont Foot37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.27
Clermont Foot
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 38 away

creates per match

Metz
1.04
Clermont Foot
1.08

allows per match

Metz
1.48
Clermont Foot
1.50

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metz or draw
63%
Metz or Clermont Foot
73%
Draw or Clermont Foot
64%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
16%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
72%
Metz 2+ goals
36%
Metz 3+ goals
14%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
72%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
37%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
50%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.48 · 77 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.04 + Clermont Foot defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Clermont Foot attack 1.08 + Metz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Metz scores more
36%
level
27%
Clermont Foot scores more
37%

Clermont Foot at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metz vs Clermont Foot

Metz and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.