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Metz vs Beziers — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beziers
Beziers
2/18/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metz57%
×Draw24%
Beziers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.71
Beziers
0.89

Metz creates 92% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Beziers
1.05

allows per match

Metz
0.72
Beziers
1.63

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Beziers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Beziers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metz or draw
81%
Metz or Beziers
76%
Draw or Beziers
43%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
31%
Beziers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
82%
Metz 2+ goals
51%
Metz 3+ goals
24%
Beziers 1+ goals
59%
Beziers 2+ goals
22%
Beziers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
74%
Beziers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.72 · 57 matches

Beziers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Beziers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Beziers attack 1.05 + Metz defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Metz scores more
57%
level
24%
Beziers scores more
19%

Metz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Metz 1 – 0 Beziers

Metz beat Beziers 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Metz.