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Metz vs Angers — Ligue 1 2026

Metz
Metz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Angers
Angers
A. Fulgini 44' (pen)
3/3/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Metz44%
×Draw26%
Angers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.44
Angers
1.12

Metz creates 29% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Metz
1.07
Angers
0.82

allows per match

Metz
1.42
Angers
1.81

finishing

Metz-0.21scores less
Angers-0.18scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Angers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metz or draw
71%
Metz or Angers
74%
Draw or Angers
56%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
21%
Angers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
76%
Metz 2+ goals
42%
Metz 3+ goals
18%
Angers 1+ goals
67%
Angers 2+ goals
31%
Angers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
60%
Angers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.42 · 22 matches

Angers away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.81 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.07 + Angers defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.44

Angers attack 0.82 + Metz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metz scores more
44%
level
26%
Angers scores more
29%

Metz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. FulginiAngersAngers · M
7.9

Match Events

44'
Boubakar Kouyate
44'
A. FulginiPenalty
66'
S. Bahoken← L. Diony
72'
V. Angban← V. Pajot
72'
T. Delaine← F. Centonze
72'
T. Ambrose← A. Leya
72'
P. Yade← M. Gueye
76'
Thierry Ambrose
77'
P. Capelle← S. Boufal
79'
Mathias Pereira Lage
83'
Vágner← D. Bronn
89'
A. Bobichon← A. Fulgini
90'
Alexandre Oukidja
90'
Souleyman Doumbia

Possession

65%Metz

Shots

15Metz

Pass accuracy

54%Metz

Statistics

MetzAngers
Overview
65%Possession35%
15Total Shots8
6Corners1
18Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots8
2On Target4
6Off Target4
7Blocked0
6Inside Box5
9Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
585Total Passes311
504Accurate Passes226
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Metz 0 – 1 Angers

Angers beat Metz 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 3, 2021.

Goals: A. Fulgini (44' pen).

Metz controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.