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Metz vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
B. Touré 90+1'
2/22/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Metz55%
×Draw26%
Ajaccio19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.52
Ajaccio
0.79

Metz creates 92% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 104 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Ajaccio
0.76

allows per match

Metz
0.82
Ajaccio
1.24

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Metz or draw
81%
Metz or Ajaccio
74%
Draw or Ajaccio
45%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
28%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
78%
Metz 2+ goals
45%
Metz 3+ goals
20%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
55%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
19%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
74%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 62 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + Metz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Metz scores more
55%
level
26%
Ajaccio scores more
19%

Metz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. UdolMetzMetz · D
8.0

Match Events

33'
Gauthier Hein
36'
Benjamin Stambouli
46'
J. Mabepa Ayessa Ondze← M. Huard
58'
Mohamed Youssouf
65'
B. Santelli← A. Kanté
70'
B. Touré← M. Soumano
72'
Jessy Deminguet
72'
M. Bokele Mputu← P. Diallo
73'
A. Jallow← J. Deminguet
80'
J. Asoro← C. Sabaly
84'
Morgan Bokele Mputu
90+1'
B. Touré

Possession

76%Metz

Shots

18Metz

Pass accuracy

58%Metz

Statistics

MetzAjaccio
Overview
76%Possession24%
18Total Shots6
4Corners2
16Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots6
4On Target2
10Off Target3
4Blocked1
13Inside Box2
5Outside Box4
Passing
76%Possession24%
654Total Passes207
614Accurate Passes138
94%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Metz vs Ajaccio

Ajaccio beat Metz 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 22, 2025.

Goals: B. Touré (90+1').

Metz controlled possession (76%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.