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Mettersdorf vs Liezen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
FT
3 – 2
Liezen
Liezen
10/4/2019Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 10Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mettersdorf72%
×Draw16%
Liezen12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mettersdorf
2.61
Liezen
0.99

Mettersdorf creates 164% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mettersdorf
2.47
Liezen
0.76

allows per match

Mettersdorf
1.23
Liezen
2.74

finishing

Mettersdorf+0.00on par
Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mettersdorf ↓

Liezen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mettersdorf or draw
88%
Mettersdorf or Liezen
84%
Draw or Liezen
28%

Winning margin

Mettersdorf wins by 2+
50%
Liezen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mettersdorf 1+ goals
93%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
73%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
47%
Liezen 1+ goals
63%
Liezen 2+ goals
26%
Liezen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
85%
Liezen (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mettersdorf at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.23 · 43 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mettersdorf attack 2.47 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.61

Liezen attack 0.76 + Mettersdorf defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Mettersdorf scores more
72%
level
16%
Liezen scores more
12%

Mettersdorf at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Mettersdorf 3–2 Liezen

Mettersdorf beat Liezen 3-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 4, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf in Mettersdorf.