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Liezen vs Mettersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Liezen
Liezen
FT
1 – 0
Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
3/10/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 16Stadion Liezen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Liezen24%
×Draw23%
Mettersdorf54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liezen
1.15
Mettersdorf
1.85

Mettersdorf creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Liezen
1.00
Mettersdorf
1.86

allows per match

Liezen
1.84
Mettersdorf
1.30

finishing

Liezen+0.00on par
Mettersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liezen ↓

Mettersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Liezen or draw
46%
Liezen or Mettersdorf
77%
Draw or Mettersdorf
76%

Winning margin

Liezen wins by 2+
9%
Mettersdorf wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Liezen 1+ goals
68%
Liezen 2+ goals
32%
Liezen 3+ goals
11%
Mettersdorf 1+ goals
84%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
55%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Liezen (draw refunded)
31%
Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liezen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Mettersdorf away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liezen attack 1.00 + Mettersdorf defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mettersdorf attack 1.86 + Liezen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Liezen scores more
24%
level
23%
Mettersdorf scores more
54%

Mettersdorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Liezen 1–0 Mettersdorf

Liezen beat Mettersdorf 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Liezen in Liezen.