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Mettersdorf vs Lebring — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
CANC
17:00
Lebring
Lebring
5/14/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 25Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Mettersdorf54%
×Draw21%
Lebring26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mettersdorf
2.20
Lebring
1.48

Mettersdorf creates 49% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 88 away

creates per match

Mettersdorf
2.47
Lebring
1.74

allows per match

Mettersdorf
1.23
Lebring
1.93

finishing

Mettersdorf+0.00on par
Lebring+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mettersdorf ↓

Lebring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mettersdorf or draw
74%
Mettersdorf or Lebring
79%
Draw or Lebring
46%

Winning margin

Mettersdorf wins by 2+
32%
Lebring wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mettersdorf 1+ goals
89%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
64%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
37%
Lebring 1+ goals
77%
Lebring 2+ goals
43%
Lebring 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
68%
Lebring (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mettersdorf at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.23 · 43 matches

Lebring away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.93 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mettersdorf attack 2.47 + Lebring defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lebring attack 1.74 + Mettersdorf defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mettersdorf scores more
54%
level
21%
Lebring scores more
26%

Mettersdorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mettersdorf face Lebring (Landesliga - Steiermark)

Landesliga - Steiermark returns with Mettersdorf hosting Lebring. Match starts May 14, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Mettersdorf host Lebring at Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.