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Metta / LU vs Banga — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Metta / LU
Metta / LU
CANC
11:00
Banga
Banga
2/8/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Skonto hallē

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Metta / LU65%
×Draw16%
Banga18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metta / LU
2.98
Banga
1.56

Metta / LU creates 91% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Metta / LU
4.25
Banga
1.86

allows per match

Metta / LU
1.25
Banga
1.71

finishing

Metta / LU+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metta / LU ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Metta / LU or draw
82%
Metta / LU or Banga
84%
Draw or Banga
35%

Winning margin

Metta / LU wins by 2+
46%
Banga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Metta / LU 1+ goals
95%
Metta / LU 2+ goals
79%
Metta / LU 3+ goals
56%
Banga 1+ goals
79%
Banga 2+ goals
46%
Banga 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Metta / LU (draw refunded)
78%
Banga (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metta / LU at home — creates 4.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Banga away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metta / LU attack 4.25 + Banga defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.98

Banga attack 1.86 + Metta / LU defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Metta / LU scores more
65%
level
16%
Banga scores more
18%

Metta / LU at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Metta / LU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Metta / LU host Banga

February 8, 2024: Metta / LU take on Banga in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Metta / LU host Banga at Skonto hallē.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.