MetroStars 1–2 Melbourne City: Result & Stats

MetroStars

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Melbourne City

A. Ayoubi 27'

T. Arslan 90+5'

C. Good 84'

9/14/2023

Australia Cup · Quarter-finalsT.K. Shutter Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MetroStars36%

×Draw26%

Melbourne City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetroStarsExpected goals in this matchMelbourne City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

MetroStars

1.29

Melbourne City

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

MetroStars

1.75

Melbourne City

1.67

allows per match

MetroStars

1.00

Melbourne City

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MetroStars+0.00on par

Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MetroStars ↓

Melbourne City →

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

MetroStars or draw

62%

MetroStars or Melbourne City

74%

Draw or Melbourne City

64%

Winning margin

MetroStars wins by 2+

16%

Melbourne City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

MetroStars 1+ goals

72%

MetroStars 2+ goals

37%

MetroStars 3+ goals

14%

Melbourne City 1+ goals

74%

Melbourne City 2+ goals

38%

Melbourne City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

MetroStars (draw refunded)

49%

Melbourne City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

MetroStars at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

MetroStars attack 1.75 + Melbourne City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Melbourne City attack 1.67 + MetroStars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

MetroStars scores more

36%

level

26%

Melbourne City scores more

38%

Melbourne City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Ayoubi

53'

A. Behich

54'

J. Walls

76'

T. Antonis← A. Lopane

81'

A. Melisi← F. Barbiero

84'

C. Good↳ T. Antonis

85'

J. Temelkovski← R. Nagamatsu

90+1'

A. Solagna

90+4'

I. Carmody

90+6'

C. D'Angelo← S. Nagel

90+9'

M. Memeti← M. Caputo

90'

H. Shillington← S. Souprayen

90+5'

T. Arslan

MetroStars

Melbourne

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Graystone

81'▲A. Melisi←▼F. Barbiero

85'▲J. Temelkovski←▼R. Nagamatsu

90+6'▲C. D'Angelo←▼S. Nagel

MetroStars substitutes

33Melisi9Temelkovski5D'Angelo6Fortunatow19Bility15Pedicini36Veitch

Manager: R. Vidošić

76'▲T. Antonis←▼A. Lopane

90+9'▲M. Memeti←▼M. Caputo

90'▲H. Shillington←▼S. Souprayen

Melbourne City substitutes

17Antonis50Memeti53Shillington40Nieuwenhuizen35Schreiber45Politidis46Mazzeo

Match Recap: MetroStars vs Melbourne City

Melbourne City beat MetroStars 2-1 in Australia Cup on September 14, 2023.

Goals: A. Ayoubi (27'), C. Good (84'), T. Arslan (90+5').

The match was played at T.K. Shutter Reserve in Adelaide.

MetroStars vs Melbourne City — Australia Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: MetroStars vs Melbourne City