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MetroStars vs FK Beograd — South Australia NPL 2026

MetroStars
MetroStars
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
FK Beograd
FK Beograd
H. Gow 53'
O. Windsor 32', 25', 2'
A. Trimboli 31'
6/21/2025South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 15T.K. Shutter Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

MetroStars49%
×Draw22%
FK Beograd29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MetroStars
1.96
FK Beograd
1.47

MetroStars creates 33% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 53 away

creates per match

MetroStars
2.21
FK Beograd
1.68

allows per match

MetroStars
1.26
FK Beograd
1.70

finishing

MetroStars+0.00on par
FK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MetroStars ↓

FK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

MetroStars or draw
71%
MetroStars or FK Beograd
78%
Draw or FK Beograd
51%

Winning margin

MetroStars wins by 2+
28%
FK Beograd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

MetroStars 1+ goals
86%
MetroStars 2+ goals
58%
MetroStars 3+ goals
31%
FK Beograd 1+ goals
77%
FK Beograd 2+ goals
43%
FK Beograd 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

MetroStars (draw refunded)
63%
FK Beograd (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MetroStars at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

FK Beograd away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MetroStars attack 2.21 + FK Beograd defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.96

FK Beograd attack 1.68 + MetroStars defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MetroStars scores more
49%
level
22%
FK Beograd scores more
29%

MetroStars at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MetroStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
O. Windsor
25'
O. Windsor
31'
A. Trimboli
32'
O. Windsor
53'
H. Gow

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: MetroStars 4–1 FK Beograd

MetroStars beat FK Beograd 4-1 in South Australia NPL on June 21, 2025.

Goals: O. Windsor (2', 25', 32'), A. Trimboli (31'), H. Gow (53').

The match was played at T.K. Shutter Reserve in Adelaide.