Metropolitanos FC 2–2 Deportivo La Guaira

Metropolitanos FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo La Guaira

D. Zalzman 57'

R. Figueroa 49'

F. Londono 80'

A. Uribe 10'

2/8/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Metropolitanos FC41%

×Draw27%

Deportivo La Guaira32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metropolitanos FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.16

Metropolitanos FC

1.34

Deportivo La Guaira

1.16

Metropolitanos FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 148 away

1.49

creates per match

1.22

1.10

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC

1.49

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC

1.10

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw

68%

Metropolitanos FC or Deportivo La Guaira

73%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

59%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals

74%

Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals

39%

Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)

56%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more

41%

level

27%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

32%

Metropolitanos FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Uribe

45+1'

D. Osio

49'

R. Figueroa↳ Miku

57'

D. Zalzman↳ R. Figueroa

64'

F. Caceres← J. Castellanos

64'

J. Perdomo← C. Faya

69'

R. Sangiovani← D. Zalzman

69'

K. Ortiz← J. Ramirez

69'

R. Arace← J. Meza

69'

Y. Rivas← A. Uribe

76'

J. Navarro← Miku

80'

F. Londono↳ D. Osio

84'

M. Sulbaran← F. Londono

85'

J. Gimenez← S. Ramirez

89'

J. Correa

90+4'

I. Ramirez

Metropolitanos

Deportivo

99

Sanchez

16

Martinez

4

Rivero

3

A

Osio

20

Gutierrez

10

▼

Castellan

6

▼

Faya

27

Correa

7

▼

Meza

9

⚽

▼

Uribe

36

⚽

▼

1

24

4

6

19

88

⚽A

Figueroa

15

⚽

▼

Zalzman

8

Ayine

11

▼

Ramirez

10

▼

Ramirez

7

A

▼

Miku

Manager: Francesco Stifano

69'▲R. Sangiovani←▼D. Zalzman

69'▲K. Ortiz←▼J. Ramirez

76'▲J. Navarro←▼Miku

85'▲J. Gimenez←▼S. Ramirez

Metropolitanos FC substitutes

22Lara20Acosta2Manenti5Sangiovani30Navarro26Urbina40Nieves17Valderrey9Ortiz13Gimenez23Diaz

Manager: Hector Bidoglio

64'▲F. Caceres←▼J. Castellanos

64'▲J. Perdomo←▼C. Faya

69'▲R. Arace←▼J. Meza

69'▲Y. Rivas←▼A. Uribe

84'▲M. Sulbaran←▼F. Londono

Deportivo La Guaira substitutes

40Pacheco77Arace25Paredes22Sulbaran32Caceres5Gianoli88Flores33Hernandez8Perdomo18Rivas14Silva2Morales