Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
11/5/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - Quadrangular - 5Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Metropolitanos FC41%
×Draw28%
Carabobo FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.29
Carabobo FC
1.10

Metropolitanos FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 145 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Carabobo FC
1.09

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Carabobo FC
1.09

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Carabobo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
68%
Metropolitanos FC or Carabobo FC
72%
Draw or Carabobo FC
59%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
18%
Carabobo FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
72%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
37%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
14%
Carabobo FC 1+ goals
67%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
30%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
56%
Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Carabobo FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Carabobo FC attack 1.09 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
41%
level
28%
Carabobo FC scores more
32%

Metropolitanos FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC

Carabobo FC beat Metropolitanos FC 4-0 in Primera División on November 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.