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Metropolitanos FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
9/12/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 22Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Metropolitanos FC48%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.51
Atletico Venezuela
1.06

Metropolitanos FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 60 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
73%
Metropolitanos FC or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
52%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
24%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
78%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
44%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
64%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
27%

Metropolitanos FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Atletico Venezuela

Metropolitanos FC beat Atletico Venezuela 2-1 in Primera División on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.