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Metropolitano vs Camboriú — Catarinense - 2 2022

Metropolitano
Metropolitano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Camboriú
Camboriú
7/20/2025Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 8Complexo Esportivo Bernardo Wolfgang Werner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Metropolitano50%
×Draw29%
Camboriú21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitano
1.30
Camboriú
0.72

Metropolitano creates 81% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Metropolitano
1.43
Camboriú
0.55

allows per match

Metropolitano
0.89
Camboriú
1.18

finishing

Metropolitano+0.00on par
Camboriú+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitano ↓

Camboriú →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Metropolitano or draw
79%
Metropolitano or Camboriú
71%
Draw or Camboriú
50%

Winning margin

Metropolitano wins by 2+
24%
Camboriú wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metropolitano 1+ goals
73%
Metropolitano 2+ goals
37%
Metropolitano 3+ goals
14%
Camboriú 1+ goals
51%
Camboriú 2+ goals
16%
Camboriú 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Metropolitano (draw refunded)
71%
Camboriú (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Camboriú away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitano attack 1.43 + Camboriú defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Camboriú attack 0.55 + Metropolitano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Metropolitano scores more
50%
level
29%
Camboriú scores more
21%

Metropolitano at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Metropolitano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Metropolitano 1–0 Camboriú

Metropolitano beat Camboriú 1-0 in Catarinense - 2 on July 20, 2025.

The match was played at Complexo Esportivo Bernardo Wolfgang Werner in Blumenau, Santa Catarina.