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Meteor Praha vs Tatran Rakovník — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
PST
15:00
Tatran Rakovník
Tatran Rakovník
6/7/20204. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 29Sportovní Areál Libeň (Praha)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Meteor Praha75%
×Draw14%
Tatran Rakovník10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha
2.83
Tatran Rakovník
0.97

Meteor Praha creates 192% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 24 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha
2.29
Tatran Rakovník
0.75

allows per match

Meteor Praha
1.19
Tatran Rakovník
3.38

finishing

Meteor Praha+0.00on par
Tatran Rakovník+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha ↓

Tatran Rakovník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Meteor Praha or draw
90%
Meteor Praha or Tatran Rakovník
86%
Draw or Tatran Rakovník
25%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha wins by 2+
55%
Tatran Rakovník wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Meteor Praha 1+ goals
94%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
77%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
53%
Tatran Rakovník 1+ goals
62%
Tatran Rakovník 2+ goals
25%
Tatran Rakovník 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
88%
Tatran Rakovník (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Tatran Rakovník away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha attack 2.29 + Tatran Rakovník defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.83

Tatran Rakovník attack 0.75 + Meteor Praha defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Meteor Praha scores more
75%
level
14%
Tatran Rakovník scores more
10%

Meteor Praha at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meteor Praha vs Tatran Rakovník — Match Preview

Meteor Praha face Tatran Rakovník on June 7, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Meteor Praha host Tatran Rakovník at Sportovní Areál Libeň (Praha).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.