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Meteor Praha vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
10/27/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 12Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Meteor Praha60%
×Draw20%
Olympie Březová20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha
2.30
Olympie Březová
1.28

Meteor Praha creates 80% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha
2.29
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Meteor Praha
1.19
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Meteor Praha+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Meteor Praha or draw
80%
Meteor Praha or Olympie Březová
80%
Draw or Olympie Březová
40%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha wins by 2+
38%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Meteor Praha 1+ goals
90%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
67%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
40%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
72%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
37%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
75%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha attack 2.29 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.30

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Meteor Praha defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Meteor Praha scores more
60%
level
20%
Olympie Březová scores more
20%

Meteor Praha at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Meteor Praha 2–1 Olympie Březová

Meteor Praha beat Olympie Březová 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň in Praha.