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Meteor Praha vs Neratovice-Byškovice — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
11/5/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 14Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Meteor Praha47%
×Draw23%
Neratovice-Byškovice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha
1.81
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.41

Meteor Praha creates 28% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 66 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha
2.29
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.62

allows per match

Meteor Praha
1.19
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.32

finishing

Meteor Praha+0.00on par
Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha ↓

Neratovice-Byškovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Meteor Praha or draw
70%
Meteor Praha or Neratovice-Byškovice
77%
Draw or Neratovice-Byškovice
53%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha wins by 2+
26%
Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Meteor Praha 1+ goals
84%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
54%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
27%
Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
76%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
41%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
61%
Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Neratovice-Byškovice away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha attack 2.29 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.81

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 1.62 + Meteor Praha defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Meteor Praha scores more
47%
level
23%
Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
30%

Meteor Praha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meteor Praha 3 – 2 Neratovice-Byškovice

Meteor Praha beat Neratovice-Byškovice 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň in Praha.