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Meteor Praha vs Kladno — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kladno
Kladno
5/21/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 27Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Meteor Praha43%
×Draw23%
Kladno35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha
1.79
Kladno
1.60

Meteor Praha creates 12% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 55 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha
2.29
Kladno
2.02

allows per match

Meteor Praha
1.19
Kladno
1.29

finishing

Meteor Praha+0.00on par
Kladno+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha ↓

Kladno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Meteor Praha or draw
65%
Meteor Praha or Kladno
77%
Draw or Kladno
57%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha wins by 2+
23%
Kladno wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Meteor Praha 1+ goals
83%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
53%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
26%
Kladno 1+ goals
80%
Kladno 2+ goals
47%
Kladno 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
55%
Kladno (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Kladno away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha attack 2.29 + Kladno defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kladno attack 2.02 + Meteor Praha defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Meteor Praha scores more
43%
level
23%
Kladno scores more
35%

Meteor Praha at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meteor Praha vs Kladno

Kladno beat Meteor Praha 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň in Praha.