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Meteor Praha U19 vs Příbram U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Meteor Praha U19
Meteor Praha U19
FT
2 – 1
Příbram U19
Příbram U19
8/21/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 4Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meteor Praha U1953%
×Draw18%
Příbram U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha U19
2.84
Příbram U19
2.09

Meteor Praha U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha U19
1.44
Příbram U19
0.85

allows per match

Meteor Praha U19
3.33
Příbram U19
4.24

finishing

Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par
Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Meteor Praha U19 or draw
71%
Meteor Praha U19 or Příbram U19
82%
Draw or Příbram U19
47%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+
34%
Příbram U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals
94%
Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals
77%
Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals
53%
Příbram U19 1+ goals
88%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
62%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.33 · 18 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha U19 attack 1.44 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.84

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Meteor Praha U19 scores more
53%
level
18%
Příbram U19 scores more
29%

Meteor Praha U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Meteor Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meteor Praha U19 vs Příbram U19

Meteor Praha U19 beat Příbram U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň in Praha.