Metalurh Zaporizhya 1–4 Khust City: Result & Stats

Metalurh Zaporizhya

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Khust City

V. Vasylchenko 19'

V. Harnaha 75'

V. Chaban 73'

S. Novikov 48'

V. Shevchuk 20'

3/23/2024

Persha Liga · Relegation Round - 1Tsentralnyi stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya38%

×Draw26%

Khust City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalurh ZaporizhyaExpected goals in this matchKhust City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.37

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.39

Khust City

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 18 away

0.88

creates per match

1.06

1.68

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya

0.88

Khust City

1.06

allows per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.68

Khust City

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par

Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalurh Zaporizhya ↓

Khust City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Metalurh Zaporizhya or draw

63%

Metalurh Zaporizhya or Khust City

74%

Draw or Khust City

62%

Winning margin

Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+

17%

Khust City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals

75%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals

40%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals

16%

Khust City 1+ goals

75%

Khust City 2+ goals

40%

Khust City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)

51%

Khust City (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalurh Zaporizhya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.88 + Khust City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

Khust City attack 1.06 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more

38%

level

26%

Khust City scores more

37%

Metalurh Zaporizhya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Metalurh Zaporizhya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

V. Vasylchenko

20'

V. Shevchuk

46'

V. Chaban← D. Kurylets

48'

S. Novikov

56'

M. Omelchenko← I. Shein

65'

V. Kaduk← M. Yudin

68'

V. Harnaha← I. Stankovych

68'

V. Vasylynets← V. Borysenko

73'

V. Chaban

75'

V. Harnaha

76'

N. Ivasiuk← M. Misanov

78'

D. Banyk← S. Novikov

78'

D. Dyianchuk← N. Prykhodko

Metalurh

Khust

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Hai

56'▲M. Omelchenko←▼I. Shein

65'▲V. Kaduk←▼M. Yudin

76'▲N. Ivasiuk←▼M. Misanov

Metalurh Zaporizhya substitutes

OmelchenkoKadukIvasiukIshymskyiLavuta

Manager: V. Tsytkin

46'▲V. Chaban←▼D. Kurylets

68'▲V. Harnaha←▼I. Stankovych

68'▲V. Vasylynets←▼V. Borysenko

78'▲D. Banyk←▼S. Novikov

78'▲D. Dyianchuk←▼N. Prykhodko

Khust City substitutes

ChabanHarnahaVasylynetsBanykDyianchukKolchinPylyp

Persha Liga: Metalurh Zaporizhya 1–4 Khust City

Khust City beat Metalurh Zaporizhya 4-1 in Persha Liga on March 23, 2024.

Goals: V. Vasylchenko (19'), V. Shevchuk (20'), S. Novikov (48'), V. Chaban (73'), V. Harnaha (75').

The match was played at Tsentralnyi stadion in Uman.

Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Khust City — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: Metalurh Zaporizhya 1–4 Khust City