Metalurh Zaporizhya 0–2 Alians Lypova Dolyna

Metalurh Zaporizhya

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alians Lypova Dolyna

8/16/2020

Persha Liga · Relegation RoundSlavutych-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Metalurh Zaporizhya24%

×Draw25%

Alians Lypova Dolyna51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalurh ZaporizhyaExpected goals in this matchAlians Lypova Dolyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.60

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.02

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.60

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 57% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 25 away

0.88

creates per match

1.52

1.68

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya

0.88

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.52

allows per match

Metalurh Zaporizhya

1.68

Alians Lypova Dolyna

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalurh Zaporizhya+0.00on par

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalurh Zaporizhya ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Metalurh Zaporizhya or draw

49%

Metalurh Zaporizhya or Alians Lypova Dolyna

75%

Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna

76%

Winning margin

Metalurh Zaporizhya wins by 2+

9%

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Metalurh Zaporizhya 1+ goals

64%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 2+ goals

27%

Metalurh Zaporizhya 3+ goals

8%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals

80%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals

47%

Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Metalurh Zaporizhya (draw refunded)

32%

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalurh Zaporizhya at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalurh Zaporizhya attack 0.88 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Metalurh Zaporizhya defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Metalurh Zaporizhya scores more

24%

level

25%

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more

51%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff