Metalurh Donetsk 3–0 FC Mariupol: Result & Stats

Metalurh Donetsk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Mariupol

D. Lazic 90+1' (pen)

M. Morozyuk 56'

A. Adorno 50'

9/20/2014

Premier League · Round 7Obolon' Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Metalurh Donetsk63%

×Draw28%

FC Mariupol9%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalurh DonetskExpected goals in this matchFC Mariupol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.33

Metalurh Donetsk

1.33

FC Mariupol

0.33

Metalurh Donetsk creates 303% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Metalurh Donetsk

1.33

FC Mariupol

0.33

allows per match

Metalurh Donetsk

0.33

FC Mariupol

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalurh Donetsk+0.00on par

FC Mariupol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalurh Donetsk ↓

FC Mariupol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–025%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Metalurh Donetsk or draw

91%

Metalurh Donetsk or FC Mariupol

72%

Draw or FC Mariupol

37%

Winning margin

Metalurh Donetsk wins by 2+

31%

FC Mariupol wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Metalurh Donetsk 1+ goals

74%

Metalurh Donetsk 2+ goals

38%

Metalurh Donetsk 3+ goals

15%

FC Mariupol 1+ goals

28%

FC Mariupol 2+ goals

4%

FC Mariupol 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Metalurh Donetsk (draw refunded)

87%

FC Mariupol (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalurh Donetsk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

FC Mariupol away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalurh Donetsk attack 1.33 + FC Mariupol defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Mariupol attack 0.33 + Metalurh Donetsk defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Metalurh Donetsk scores more

63%

level

28%

FC Mariupol scores more

9%

Metalurh Donetsk at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Metalurh Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

A. Adorno↳ K. Makridis

56'

M. Morozyuk

61'

V. Fedotov← A. Adorno

68'

V. Pryyma← V. Sharpar

70'

I. Yanakov← O. Mandzyuk

84'

M. Degtyarev← G. Nelson

84'

Z. Ochihava← S. Garashchenkov

89'

S. Prykhodko← A. Oberemko

90+1'

D. LazicPenalty

Metalurh

FC

1

Galchuk

13

Yavorskiy

18

▼

Garashche

93

Tsyupa

5

Aksenov

9

▼

61

11

8

16

▼

39

12

4

55

8

▼

Nelson

13

A

Makridis

9

⚽

Lazic

7

⚽

Morozyuk

15

▼

Sharpar

5

Putivtsev

18

Noyok

21

⚽

▼

Adorno

61'▲V. Fedotov←▼A. Adorno

68'▲V. Pryyma←▼V. Sharpar

84'▲M. Degtyarev←▼G. Nelson

Metalurh Donetsk substitutes

20Fedotov44Pryyma77Degtyarev2Baranovsky23Nasonov79Pankiv19Hovsepyan

70'▲I. Yanakov←▼O. Mandzyuk

84'▲Z. Ochihava←▼S. Garashchenkov

89'▲S. Prykhodko←▼A. Oberemko

FC Mariupol substitutes

31Yanakov19Ochihava94Prykhodko14Kisil33Churilov96Bykovsky