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Metalul Buzău vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

Metalul Buzău
Metalul Buzău
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
4/26/2025Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 5Teren Sintetic Cornel Negoescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Metalul Buzău41%
×Draw27%
U Craiova 194831%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalul Buzău
1.31
U Craiova 1948
1.10

Metalul Buzău creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Metalul Buzău
1.52
U Craiova 1948
1.24

allows per match

Metalul Buzău
0.96
U Craiova 1948
1.10

finishing

Metalul Buzău+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalul Buzău ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Metalul Buzău or draw
69%
Metalul Buzău or U Craiova 1948
73%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
59%

Winning margin

Metalul Buzău wins by 2+
19%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Metalul Buzău 1+ goals
73%
Metalul Buzău 2+ goals
38%
Metalul Buzău 3+ goals
14%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
67%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
30%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)
57%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalul Buzău at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalul Buzău attack 1.52 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Metalul Buzău defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Metalul Buzău scores more
41%
level
27%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
31%

Metalul Buzău at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Metalul Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalul Buzău vs U Craiova 1948

Metalul Buzău beat U Craiova 1948 2-1 in Liga II on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Teren Sintetic Cornel Negoescu in Buzău.