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Metalul Buzău vs Dunarea Calarasi — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Metalul Buzău
Metalul Buzău
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
Unknown 73'
2/14/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Metalul Buzău54%
×Draw26%
Dunarea Calarasi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalul Buzău
1.50
Dunarea Calarasi
0.79

Metalul Buzău creates 90% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Metalul Buzău
2.00
Dunarea Calarasi
0.33

allows per match

Metalul Buzău
1.25
Dunarea Calarasi
1.00

finishing

Metalul Buzău+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalul Buzău ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Metalul Buzău or draw
80%
Metalul Buzău or Dunarea Calarasi
74%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
46%

Winning margin

Metalul Buzău wins by 2+
28%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Metalul Buzău 1+ goals
78%
Metalul Buzău 2+ goals
44%
Metalul Buzău 3+ goals
19%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
55%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
19%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)
73%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalul Buzău at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalul Buzău attack 2.00 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dunarea Calarasi attack 0.33 + Metalul Buzău defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Metalul Buzău scores more
54%
level
26%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
20%

Metalul Buzău at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Metalul Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
Metalul
Dunarea
V. Stan
Manager: V. Stan
M. Păun
Manager: M. Păun

Friendlies Clubs: Metalul Buzău 1–0 Dunarea Calarasi

Metalul Buzău beat Dunarea Calarasi 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2025.

Goals: ? (73').