Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metalul Buzău vs CSM FC Vaslui — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Metalul Buzău
Metalul Buzău
FT
3 – 3
CSM FC Vaslui
CSM FC Vaslui
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Metalul Buzău39%
×Draw22%
CSM FC Vaslui39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalul Buzău
1.75
CSM FC Vaslui
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Metalul Buzău
2.00
CSM FC Vaslui
2.25

allows per match

Metalul Buzău
1.25
CSM FC Vaslui
1.50

finishing

Metalul Buzău+0.00on par
CSM FC Vaslui+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalul Buzău ↓

CSM FC Vaslui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Metalul Buzău or draw
61%
Metalul Buzău or CSM FC Vaslui
78%
Draw or CSM FC Vaslui
61%

Winning margin

Metalul Buzău wins by 2+
20%
CSM FC Vaslui wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Metalul Buzău 1+ goals
83%
Metalul Buzău 2+ goals
52%
Metalul Buzău 3+ goals
25%
CSM FC Vaslui 1+ goals
83%
CSM FC Vaslui 2+ goals
52%
CSM FC Vaslui 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)
50%
CSM FC Vaslui (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalul Buzău at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

CSM FC Vaslui away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalul Buzău attack 2.00 + CSM FC Vaslui defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

CSM FC Vaslui attack 2.25 + Metalul Buzău defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Metalul Buzău scores more
39%
level
22%
CSM FC Vaslui scores more
39%

Metalul Buzău at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Metalul Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalul Buzău vs CSM FC Vaslui

Metalul Buzău and CSM FC Vaslui drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.