Metalul Buzău vs CS Afumati — Liga II 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Metalul Buzău44%
CS Afumati30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Metalul Buzău creates 27% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Metalul Buzău ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Metalul Buzău at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches
CS Afumati away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Metalul Buzău attack 1.52 + CS Afumati defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43
CS Afumati attack 1.30 + Metalul Buzău defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Metalul Buzău at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Metalul Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Metalul Buzău substitutes
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Corvinul Hunedoara
FC Voluntari
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
ASA Targu MuresMetalul Buzău
Bihor Oradea
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Slatina
FC Bacau
Concordia
Politehnica Iasi
CSM Reşiţa
Chindia TargovisteCS Afumati
Gloria Bistriţa
Viitorul Şelimbăr
Dumbrăviţa
CSM Satu Mare
Tunari
CS Dinamo București
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Muscelul Câmpulung EliteIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Metalul Buzău host CS Afumati on Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 10:00. The match is part of the Liga II 2018/2019 season.
Metalul Buzău 1 – 0 CS Afumati
Metalul Buzău beat CS Afumati 1-0 in Liga II on November 23, 2024.
Goals: V. Robu (36').
The match was played at Teren Sintetic Cornel Negoescu in Buzău.