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Metalourg vs Yaypan — Pro League A 2026

Metalourg
Metalourg
Preview
13:00
Yaypan
Yaypan
8/10/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 14Metallurg Stadium
70%
Metalourg
model favours
70%17%13%
2–0
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Metalourg70%
×Draw17%
Yaypan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalourg
2.46
Yaypan
0.96

Metalourg creates 156% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Metalourg
2.67
Yaypan
1.25

allows per match

Metalourg
0.67
Yaypan
2.25

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par
Yaypan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Yaypan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw
87%
Metalourg or Yaypan
83%
Draw or Yaypan
30%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+
47%
Yaypan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals
91%
Metalourg 2+ goals
70%
Metalourg 3+ goals
44%
Yaypan 1+ goals
62%
Yaypan 2+ goals
25%
Yaypan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)
84%
Yaypan (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Yaypan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 2.67 + Yaypan defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Yaypan attack 1.25 + Metalourg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Metalourg scores more
70%
level
17%
Yaypan scores more
13%

Metalourg at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Metalourg
LWLDL
Yaypan
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Metalourg vs Yaypan — Match Preview

Metalourg face Yaypan on August 10, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Metalourg host Yaypan at Metallurg Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.