Metalourg 2–0 Sogdiana: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sogdiana

D. Narzullaev 62'

Y. Chumak 24'

7/12/2020

Super League · Round 9Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Metalourg40%

×Draw28%

Sogdiana32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchSogdiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Metalourg

1.23

Sogdiana

1.06

Metalourg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 102 away

1.05

creates per match

1.10

1.03

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Sogdiana

1.10

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Sogdiana

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Sogdiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

68%

Metalourg or Sogdiana

72%

Draw or Sogdiana

60%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

17%

Sogdiana wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

71%

Metalourg 2+ goals

35%

Metalourg 3+ goals

13%

Sogdiana 1+ goals

65%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

29%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

56%

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Sogdiana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sogdiana attack 1.10 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metalourg scores more

40%

level

28%

Sogdiana scores more

32%

Metalourg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

I. Shoykulov

24'

Y. Chumak

30'

A. Abdulkhakov

52'

J. Boltaboev← A. Nomanov

52'

Sahob Rashidov← I. Nagaev

62'

D. Narzullaev

67'

Elivelto← J. Khasanov

67'

S. Shikhov← J. Kaxramonov

75'

A. Toshkuziev← A. Abdulkhakov

75'

K. Sattarov← A. Ismatullaev

78'

Z. Abdullaev

81'

D. Anvarov← Z. Abdullayev

81'

S. Gofurbekov← D. Narzullaev

83'

B. Nasimov← S. Qulmatov

90+2'

Metalourg

Sogdiana

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Shipilov

75'▲A. Toshkuziev←▼A. Abdulkhakov

75'▲K. Sattarov←▼A. Ismatullaev

81'▲D. Anvarov←▼Z. Abdullayev

81'▲S. Gofurbekov←▼D. Narzullaev

Metalourg substitutes

ToshkuzievSattarovAnvarovGofurbekovTursunbaevBobojonovIsayevAbdumajidovKutybaev

Manager: U. Bakaev

52'▲J. Boltaboev←▼A. Nomanov

52'▲Sahob Rashidov←▼I. Nagaev

67'▲Elivelto←▼J. Khasanov

67'▲S. Shikhov←▼J. Kaxramonov

83'▲B. Nasimov←▼S. Qulmatov

Sogdiana substitutes

BoltaboevRashidovEliveltoShikhovNasimovNasridinovTalkhatovKolakovićMitrović

Super League: Metalourg 2–0 Sogdiana

Metalourg beat Sogdiana 2-0 in Super League on July 12, 2020.

Goals: Y. Chumak (24'), D. Narzullaev (62').

The match was played at Metallurg Markaziy Stadion in Bekabad.

Metalourg vs Sogdiana — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Metalourg 2–0 Sogdiana