Metalourg 3–2 Shortan: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Shortan

J. Khakimov 88'

K. Ergashev 20' (OG)

J. Abdumuminov 5'

I. Taran 90+4' (pen)

L. Ubaydullaev 40'

4/2/2016

Super League · Round 3Stadion Metallurg (Olmaliq (Almalyk))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Metalourg50%

×Draw27%

Shortan24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchShortan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.92

Metalourg

1.46

Shortan

0.92

Metalourg creates 59% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 21 away

1.05

creates per match

0.81

1.03

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Shortan

0.81

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Shortan

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Shortan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Shortan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

76%

Metalourg or Shortan

73%

Draw or Shortan

50%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

25%

Shortan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

77%

Metalourg 2+ goals

43%

Metalourg 3+ goals

18%

Shortan 1+ goals

60%

Shortan 2+ goals

23%

Shortan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

68%

Shortan (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Shortan away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Shortan defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.46

Shortan attack 0.81 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Metalourg scores more

50%

level

27%

Shortan scores more

24%

Metalourg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. Abdumuminov

20'

K. ErgashevOwn goal

40'

L. Ubaydullaev

67'

F. Namazov← A. Nomanov

75'

S. Rasulov← E. Baymatov

76'

J. Esonkulov← S. Abdujabborov

79'

Z. Polvonov← K. Ergashev

86'

J. Khakimov← Z. Abdullayev

88'

J. Khakimov

90+4'

I. TaranPenalty

Metalourg

Shortan

Tadjibaev

Karaev

Otakulov

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Mirsadikov

67'▲F. Namazov←▼A. Nomanov

76'▲J. Esonkulov←▼S. Abdujabborov

86'▲J. Khakimov←▼Z. Abdullayev

Metalourg substitutes

NamazovEsonkulovKhakimovIsmoilovKobilovSultanovKhudoyberdyev

Manager: Z. To'raqulov

75'▲S. Rasulov←▼E. Baymatov

79'▲Z. Polvonov←▼K. Ergashev

Shortan substitutes

RasulovPolvonovAlikulovAmonovTurdalievKholmurodovMuradov

Match Recap: Metalourg vs Shortan

Metalourg beat Shortan 3-2 in Super League on April 2, 2016.

Goals: J. Abdumuminov (5'), K. Ergashev (20' o.g.), L. Ubaydullaev (40'), J. Khakimov (88'), I. Taran (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg (Olmaliq (Almalyk)).

Metalourg vs Shortan — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Metalourg vs Shortan