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Metalourg vs Pakhtakor II — Pro League A 2026

Metalourg
Metalourg
Preview
13:00
Pakhtakor II
Pakhtakor II
9/6/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 18Metallurg Stadium
71%
Metalourg
model favours
71%18%12%

Metalourg sit 3, Pakhtakor II 14 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Metalourg71%
×Draw18%
Pakhtakor II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalourg
2.33
Pakhtakor II
0.83

Metalourg creates 181% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Metalourg
2.67
Pakhtakor II
1.00

allows per match

Metalourg
0.67
Pakhtakor II
2.00

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par
Pakhtakor II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Pakhtakor II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw
88%
Metalourg or Pakhtakor II
82%
Draw or Pakhtakor II
29%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+
47%
Pakhtakor II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals
90%
Metalourg 2+ goals
67%
Metalourg 3+ goals
41%
Pakhtakor II 1+ goals
56%
Pakhtakor II 2+ goals
20%
Pakhtakor II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)
86%
Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Pakhtakor II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 2.67 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Pakhtakor II attack 1.00 + Metalourg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Metalourg scores more
71%
level
18%
Pakhtakor II scores more
12%

Metalourg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Metalourg
LWLDL
II
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Metalourg face Pakhtakor II (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with Metalourg hosting Pakhtakor II. Match starts September 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Metalourg host Pakhtakor II at Metallurg Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.