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Metalourg vs Olympic — Super League 2026

Metalourg
Metalourg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olympic
Olympic
12/1/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Metalourg39%
×Draw28%
Olympic33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalourg
1.23
Olympic
1.10

Metalourg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 39 away

creates per match

Metalourg
0.99
Olympic
1.18

allows per match

Metalourg
1.03
Olympic
1.46

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw
67%
Metalourg or Olympic
72%
Draw or Olympic
61%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+
17%
Olympic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals
71%
Metalourg 2+ goals
35%
Metalourg 3+ goals
13%
Olympic 1+ goals
67%
Olympic 2+ goals
30%
Olympic 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)
54%
Olympic (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Olympic away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 0.99 + Olympic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olympic attack 1.18 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Metalourg scores more
39%
level
28%
Olympic scores more
33%

Metalourg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Metalourg 2–1 Olympic

Metalourg beat Olympic 2-1 in Super League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at OKMK Sport Majmuasi in Almalyk.