Metalourg 1–1 Navbahor: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Navbahor

Z. Urinboev 90+6'

I. Yoldoshev 22'

8/4/2023

Super League · Round 15Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Metalourg34%

×Draw29%

Navbahor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchNavbahor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.11

Metalourg

1.06

Navbahor

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 99 away

1.05

creates per match

1.19

1.03

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Navbahor

1.19

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Navbahor

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Navbahor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

63%

Metalourg or Navbahor

71%

Draw or Navbahor

66%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

13%

Navbahor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

65%

Metalourg 2+ goals

29%

Metalourg 3+ goals

9%

Navbahor 1+ goals

67%

Navbahor 2+ goals

30%

Navbahor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

48%

Navbahor (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Navbahor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Navbahor attack 1.19 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Metalourg scores more

34%

level

29%

Navbahor scores more

37%

Navbahor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

I. Josovic

21'

K. Palic

22'

I. Yoldoshev

31'

S. Ubaydullaev← S. Nematjonov

53'

K. Gofurov

59'

I. Golban

77'

D. Temirov← S. Abduraymov

78'

A. Ismailov← O. Orunov

85'

D. Sharipov← D. Mahini

88'

A. Ismoilov

90'

T. Abdukholikov← J. Iskanderov

90+6'

Z. Urinboev

Metalourg

Navbahor

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: V. Stešević

31'▲S. Ubaydullaev←▼S. Nematjonov

77'▲D. Temirov←▼S. Abduraymov

85'▲D. Sharipov←▼D. Mahini

Metalourg substitutes

UbaydullaevTemirovSharipovLobanovShodmonovIsmoilovShaykulovSattarovAliqulov

Manager: S. Babayan

78'▲A. Ismailov←▼O. Orunov

90'▲T. Abdukholikov←▼J. Iskanderov

Navbahor substitutes

IsmailovAbdukholikovAkhmedovSobirjonovAbdumannopovNesterovMuminovKhudoyberganovIvanović

Match Recap: Metalourg vs Navbahor

Metalourg and Navbahor drew 1-1 in Super League on August 4, 2023.

Goals: I. Yoldoshev (22'), Z. Urinboev (90+6').

The match was played at Metallurg Markaziy Stadion in Bekabad.

Metalourg vs Navbahor — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Metalourg vs Navbahor