Metalourg 7–0 FarDu: Result & Stats | Pro League A

Metalourg

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

FarDu

J. Khakimov 78'

D. Abdulkhaev 76'

B. Jocic 69'

N. Iminjonov 63', 26', 11'

A. Bosnjak 16'

6/8/2026

Pro League A · Round 10Metallurg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Metalourg70%

×Draw18%

FarDu12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchFarDu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.78

Metalourg

2.21

FarDu

0.78

Metalourg creates 183% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

2.67

creates per match

0.88

0.67

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Metalourg

2.67

FarDu

0.88

allows per match

Metalourg

0.67

FarDu

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

FarDu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

FarDu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

88%

Metalourg or FarDu

82%

Draw or FarDu

30%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

46%

FarDu wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

89%

Metalourg 2+ goals

65%

Metalourg 3+ goals

38%

FarDu 1+ goals

54%

FarDu 2+ goals

18%

FarDu 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

85%

FarDu (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

FarDu away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 2.67 + FarDu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

FarDu attack 0.88 + Metalourg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Metalourg scores more

70%

level

18%

FarDu scores more

12%

Metalourg at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

16'

26'

63'

69'

76'

78'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff