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Metalourg vs BuxDu — Pro League A 2026

Metalourg
Metalourg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
BuxDu
BuxDu
N. Iminjonov 85'
A. Akhmedov 37'
V. Bubanja 25'
4/20/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 4Metallurg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Metalourg85%
×Draw12%
BuxDu3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalourg
2.54
BuxDu
0.34

Metalourg creates 647% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Metalourg
2.67
BuxDu
0.00

allows per match

Metalourg
0.67
BuxDu
2.40

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par
BuxDu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

BuxDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw
97%
Metalourg or BuxDu
88%
Draw or BuxDu
15%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+
63%
BuxDu wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals
92%
Metalourg 2+ goals
72%
Metalourg 3+ goals
46%
BuxDu 1+ goals
29%
BuxDu 2+ goals
5%
BuxDu 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)
96%
BuxDu (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

BuxDu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 2.67 + BuxDu defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

BuxDu attack 0.00 + Metalourg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Metalourg scores more
85%
level
12%
BuxDu scores more
3%

Metalourg at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
V. Bubanja
34'
B. Turaev
37'
A. Akhmedov
85'
N. Iminjonov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalourg vs BuxDu

Metalourg beat BuxDu 3-0 in Pro League A on April 20, 2026.

Goals: V. Bubanja (25'), A. Akhmedov (37'), N. Iminjonov (85').

The match was played at Metallurg Stadium in Bekabad.