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Metaloglobus vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
10/26/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 14Metaloglobus Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Metaloglobus26%
×Draw27%
Universitatea Craiova47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metaloglobus
0.99
Universitatea Craiova
1.42

Universitatea Craiova creates 43% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 155 away

creates per match

Metaloglobus
0.85
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

Metaloglobus
1.45
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw
53%
Metaloglobus or Universitatea Craiova
73%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
74%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+
9%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals
63%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
26%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
8%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
76%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
41%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
36%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 0.85 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Metaloglobus defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Metaloglobus scores more
26%
level
27%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
47%

Universitatea Craiova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Metaloglobus 0–0 Universitatea Craiova

Metaloglobus and Universitatea Craiova drew 0-0 in Liga I on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Metaloglobus Stadium in Bucharest.