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Metaloglobus vs Unirea Dej — Liga II 2018

Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
4/20/2024Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 4Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Metaloglobus45%
×Draw29%
Unirea Dej26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metaloglobus
1.26
Unirea Dej
0.89

Metaloglobus creates 42% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 38 away

creates per match

Metaloglobus
1.39
Unirea Dej
0.89

allows per match

Metaloglobus
0.88
Unirea Dej
1.13

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par
Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

Unirea Dej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw
74%
Metaloglobus or Unirea Dej
71%
Draw or Unirea Dej
55%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+
20%
Unirea Dej wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals
72%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
36%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
13%
Unirea Dej 1+ goals
59%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
22%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
63%
Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metaloglobus scores more
45%
level
29%
Unirea Dej scores more
26%

Metaloglobus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Metaloglobus 0–1 Unirea Dej

Unirea Dej beat Metaloglobus 1-0 in Liga II on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.