Metaloglobus 0–1 CS Luceafarul Oradea

Metaloglobus

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CS Luceafarul Oradea

5/15/2019

Liga II · Round 35Stadionul Metaloglobus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Metaloglobus60%

×Draw23%

CS Luceafarul Oradea17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetaloglobusExpected goals in this matchCS Luceafarul Oradea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.86

Metaloglobus

1.82

CS Luceafarul Oradea

0.86

Metaloglobus creates 112% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 19 away

1.39

creates per match

0.84

0.88

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Metaloglobus

1.39

CS Luceafarul Oradea

0.84

allows per match

Metaloglobus

0.88

CS Luceafarul Oradea

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw

83%

Metaloglobus or CS Luceafarul Oradea

77%

Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea

40%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+

35%

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals

84%

Metaloglobus 2+ goals

54%

Metaloglobus 3+ goals

27%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals

58%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals

21%

CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)

78%

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.82

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Metaloglobus scores more

60%

level

23%

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more

17%

Metaloglobus at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff