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Metaloglobus vs Concordia — Liga II 2018

Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Concordia
Concordia
3/2/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 17Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Metaloglobus44%
×Draw28%
Concordia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metaloglobus
1.33
Concordia
0.99

Metaloglobus creates 34% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 89 away

creates per match

Metaloglobus
1.39
Concordia
1.09

allows per match

Metaloglobus
0.88
Concordia
1.27

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw
72%
Metaloglobus or Concordia
72%
Draw or Concordia
56%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+
21%
Concordia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals
74%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
38%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
15%
Concordia 1+ goals
63%
Concordia 2+ goals
26%
Concordia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
61%
Concordia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + Concordia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Concordia attack 1.09 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metaloglobus scores more
44%
level
28%
Concordia scores more
28%

Metaloglobus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Metaloglobus 2–0 Concordia

Metaloglobus beat Concordia 2-0 in Liga II on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.