Metaloglobus 2–0 Comuna Recea: Result & Stats

Metaloglobus

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Comuna Recea

11/21/2020

Liga II · Round 13Stadionul Metaloglobus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Metaloglobus56%

×Draw24%

Comuna Recea20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetaloglobusExpected goals in this matchComuna Recea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.90

Metaloglobus

1.69

Comuna Recea

0.90

Metaloglobus creates 88% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 13 away

1.39

creates per match

0.92

0.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Metaloglobus

1.39

Comuna Recea

0.92

allows per match

Metaloglobus

0.88

Comuna Recea

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Comuna Recea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

Comuna Recea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw

80%

Metaloglobus or Comuna Recea

76%

Draw or Comuna Recea

44%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+

31%

Comuna Recea wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals

82%

Metaloglobus 2+ goals

50%

Metaloglobus 3+ goals

24%

Comuna Recea 1+ goals

59%

Comuna Recea 2+ goals

23%

Comuna Recea 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)

74%

Comuna Recea (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Comuna Recea away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + Comuna Recea defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Comuna Recea attack 0.92 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Metaloglobus scores more

56%

level

24%

Comuna Recea scores more

20%

Metaloglobus at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff