Metaloglobus 3–0 Aerostar Bacau: Result & Stats

Metaloglobus

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aerostar Bacau

2/27/2021

Liga II · Round 17Stadionul Metaloglobus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Metaloglobus58%

×Draw23%

Aerostar Bacau19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetaloglobusExpected goals in this matchAerostar Bacau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.93

Metaloglobus

1.81

Aerostar Bacau

0.93

Metaloglobus creates 95% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 31 away

1.39

creates per match

0.97

0.88

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Metaloglobus

1.39

Aerostar Bacau

0.97

allows per match

Metaloglobus

0.88

Aerostar Bacau

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metaloglobus ↓

Aerostar Bacau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Metaloglobus or draw

81%

Metaloglobus or Aerostar Bacau

77%

Draw or Aerostar Bacau

42%

Winning margin

Metaloglobus wins by 2+

33%

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Metaloglobus 1+ goals

84%

Metaloglobus 2+ goals

54%

Metaloglobus 3+ goals

27%

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals

61%

Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals

24%

Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Metaloglobus (draw refunded)

75%

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metaloglobus at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metaloglobus attack 1.39 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.81

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Metaloglobus defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Metaloglobus scores more

58%

level

23%

Aerostar Bacau scores more

19%

Metaloglobus at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff