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Metallurg Vidnoye vs Zenit Penza — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
5/20/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye37%
×Draw23%
Zenit Penza40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.59
Zenit Penza
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
Zenit Penza
0.96

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
Zenit Penza
1.66

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Zenit Penza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
60%
Metallurg Vidnoye or Zenit Penza
77%
Draw or Zenit Penza
63%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
18%
Zenit Penza wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
80%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
47%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
21%
Zenit Penza 1+ goals
81%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
49%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
48%
Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Zenit Penza away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Zenit Penza defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Zenit Penza attack 0.96 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
37%
level
23%
Zenit Penza scores more
40%

Zenit Penza at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zenit Penza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Vidnoye 2–3 Zenit Penza

Zenit Penza beat Metallurg Vidnoye 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.